The RRP multiplier effects on the Greek economy

This study explores the multiplier effects brought by changes in the components of autonomous demand following the Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) for the period 2021-26. The effects are estimated in terms of output and employment of the Greek economy. The findings suggest that the 18.2 bn. euro from RRP would lead to a total (direct and indirect) increase in output of about 12.2 bn. euro and increase in employment of about 390,000 persons. Therefore, it would lead to a total increase in output of about 7.2% and in employment of about 10%. From the analysis of the effects on output and employment per cost type, it follows that the expenditures of RRP on Construction and Services would lead to a total increase in output of about 5.4%. Finally, our intersectoral analysis concludes that the RRP program would lead to a short-term boost on terms of output and employment, while the impact would be mild to the structure of the Greek economy. In other words, we are not so optimistic that the RRP would lead to a fundamental economic and social transformation that combines economic efficiency with natural, social and economic sustainability.