Exchange-rate pass-through in Turkey with a supply and use model

Using a multisectoral model and data from the supply and use tables, this article estimates the exchange-rate pass-through to the domestic price level of the Turkish economy. The results indicate that a unit change in the exchange rate leads to 0.61 units of change in the overall price level. This effect comes out mostly through the industry, and the primary sector; while in terms of products, the energy sector is the major actor for the changes in the domestic price level.

Measuring Productivities for the 38 OECD Member Countries: An Input-Output Modelling Approach

Using a multisectoral model and the latest data from the OECD Input-Output Tables (IOTs-2021 ed.), this article estimates labour and capital productivities of the 38 OECD member countries. As measures of the productivity of labour, we consider the inverse of the vertically integrated labour coefficients, while Perron–Frobenius theorems are employed so as to measure capital productivity. In this respect, the productive technologies and the intersectoral relationships of each economy are taken into account. We further investigate the relationship between productivity, economic efficiency and living standards. Findings indicate that the impact of capital productivity on higher living standards depends on the evolutionary and institutional background of the economy at hand.

COVID-19 in US Economy: Structural Analysis and Policy Proposals

Based on an input–output framework, this paper analyses the intersectoral structure of the US economy and estimates the COVID-19 multiplier effects on this economy. For this purpose we employ a model of matrix multipliers—which, except for the technical conditions of production, also considers imports, income distribution, savings, and consumption patterns—using data from the input–output table of the US economy for the year 2015, i.e., the latest available data at the time of this research (a few months after the US presidential election). Furthermore, we detect the key commodities that are considered appropriate for implementing economic policies in the short term, i.e., for boosting growth and job creation, as well as the commodities that are suitable for long-term, structural policies. Our findings suggest that short-term policies for a direct recovery after COVID-19 should be based on public consumption expenditures and investments as well as through exports. It is also shown that there is a great variety of short-term and long-term policies that can be adjusted according to the challenges of the US economy. Finally, for reasons of completeness, we estimate the impact of the main plans of the American president’s policy program, i.e., the “American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan”, and we show that both plans would cumulatively increase the US output by about USD 6.07 trillion over the next ten years, not only helping the US economy recover from the COVID-19 shock but also ensuring macroeconomic stability and social cohesion.

On Measuring the Impact of Internal Devaluation in Greece: Poverty, Flexibility, Migration and Growthless Employment

This article takes a critical view on austerity policy and examines its social and economic consequences for the case of Greece. By introducing the concept of “growthless employment” it demonstrates that the implementation of internal devaluation policies had a substantial impact on the Greek society that needs to be addressed. Within a decade, household disposable income was reduced to an unprecedented level while the labour market was extensively deregulated as several indicators can display. The seemingly paradoxical case of employment without growth—hence, growthless employment—can be interpreted as the consequence of the intensity of the mix of austerity policies that was imposed as “one-size-fits-all” without taking the peculiar structure of the Greek economy into account. A descriptive examination of this idiosyncratic state of affairs is offered, providing new insights on how the level of depreciation can be better assessed. It is argued that the overall severity of the crisis is better captured by the level of disposable income whereas a modified measurement of poverty and income depreciation is introduced for the same purpose. Lastly it is maintained that Greece has suffered by an enormous outflow of its productive-aged population in the aftermath of the crisis. All the above concretise the idea of growthless employment in Greece.

[Energies] (IF: 3.004; CiteScore: 4.7) Call for Papers for Special Issue «Energy and Economic Systems: National Accounting Perspectives»

The recent energy crisis and economic and environmental sustainability are among the biggest challenges in the contemporary world. As one of the primary tools for research and decision-making in the areas of economic development, energy policy and ecology, national accounting systems (NAS) have an important role in answering these challenges. The central position of national accounts in statistical systems, and along with their worldwide use and acceptance, reinforces their usefulness and importance as a source role as a universal language and body of factual information on the economy, energy and environment. Due to their ability to provide a comprehensive picture of the economic system, the models that are based on NAS (e.g., input-output and stock-flow consistent models) are widely used in environmental studies, linking economic and environmental variables on the demand and supply sides. All these considerations motivate the proposal of this Special Issue, which aims to collect empirical studies and theoretical contributions exploring the linkages between the economy, energy and the environment.

A Race to the Bottom: Measuring Income Loss and Poverty in Greece

More than a decade after the 2009 crisis, the standards of living of the Greek population are still contracting and the prospects are gloomy. In this policy note, Vlassis Missos, Research Associate Nikolaos Rodousakis, and George Soklis deal with how to approach the measurement of income loss and poverty in Greece and argue for the use of household disposable income (HDI) in estimating adjustments, which offers a more accurate appreciation of the burden falling on the Greek population. They underline the significance of replacing a “southern-European model” of social protection with a passive safety net model—and the centrality to the latter model of embracing ideas of internal devaluation and fiscal consolidation—and suggest a better measure of poverty, for the case of Greece specifically and in general for developed economies in which front-loaded neoliberal policies are imposed. Finally, they comment on the sacrifice that would be required if fiscal discipline were to return in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

Measuring Intersectoral Linkages of the Greek Energy Sector

The presentation focused on the intersectoral linkages of the energy sector of the Greek economy. The methodological approach is an extended version of the hypothetical extraction method, based on the latest input-output data. It considers both the amount of inputs and labor required to produce a given good or service. The presentation shows first that the role of the energy sector in the Greek economy is that of an input seller rather than a purchaser. In particular, there is a strong dependency of all sectors on the energy sector. Secondly, over the las decade, the mix of the energy consumption in Greece changed and today is strongly depended on “oil and petroleum products” and “natural gas”, whereas at the same time, the energy import dependency went up (reaching 81.4% in 2020), thus making the Greek economy more exposed to developments in international energy markets compared to the recent past. Thirdly, the sector most affected by the current energy crisis is «Natural water; water treatment and supply services» whose operating costs are likely to face strong pressure. However, this sector is largely under the control of the Government, so it should be relatively easier to mitigate the negative implications of higher energy costs. Lastly, in addition to the industries, households are also vulnerable to the rising energy costs.

Ανάπτυξη μέσω Τουρισμού ή Τουρισμός μέσω Ανάπτυξης;

Το παρόν άρθρο εκτιμά τις διακλαδικές διασυνδέσεις του τουριστικού τομέα της ελληνικής οικονομίας χρησιμοποιώντας μια διευρυμένη εκδοχή της μεθόδου της «υποθετικής απόσπασης» (hypothetical extraction method), η οποία επιτρέπει την συνεκτίμηση των διακλαδικών επιδράσεων της διαδικασίας αναπαραγωγής της εργασιακής δύναμης. Τα ευρήματα της ανάλυσής μας δείχνουν ότι ο ρόλος του τουρισμού στην ελληνική οικονομία είναι περισσότερο ως πωλητής εισροών στους υπόλοιπους κλάδους παρά ως αγοραστής εισροών, εύρημα το οποίο δύναται να αναχθεί σε μεγάλο βαθμό στην υψηλή συμμετοχή του τουριστικού προϊόντος στη διαδικασία αναπαραγωγής της εργασιακής δύναμης. Με άλλα λόγια μια αύξηση της ζήτησης για το τουριστικό προϊόν δεν μπορεί να επιφέρει μια ισχυρή αναπτυξιακή δυναμική στο οικονομικό σύστημα, λόγω του ότι η εξάρτηση του τομέα από εισροές άλλων κλάδων για τη λειτουργία του είναι χαμηλή και, άρα, η αύξηση του τουριστικού προϊόντος δεν θα επιφέρει μεγάλη αύξηση της παραγωγής των υπολοίπων κλάδων της οικονομίας. Αντιθέτως, μια αύξηση της ζήτησης για τα προϊόντα των υπολοίπων κλάδων θα επιφέρει μια ισχυρή ανάπτυξη του τουριστικού τομέα, λόγω του ότι η εξάρτηση των άλλων κλάδων από εισροές του τουριστικού τομέα είναι υψηλή. Συνεπώς, οι διακλαδικές διασυνδέσεις του τουρισμού δείχνουν ότι ο τομέας δεν μπορεί να αποτελέσει τη βάση μιας αναπτυξιακής πολιτικής μέσω τόνωσης της τουριστικής ζήτησης, αλλά, αντιστρόφως, μια πολυκλαδική ανάπτυξη της ελληνικής οικονομίας θα οδηγήσει σε σημαντική μεγέθυνση του τουριστικού της τομέα.

Οι Δύο Όψεις της Ενεργειακής Κρίσης στην Ελληνική Οικονομία: Μέρος B

Η παρούσα ανάλυση εντοπίζει τις διακλαδικές διασυνδέσεις των διαφόρων κλάδων της ελληνικής οικονομίας με τον κλάδο της ενέργειας και καταδεικνύει τον βαθμό στον οποίο κάθε κλάδος της οικονομίας εξαρτάται από τον κλάδο της ενέργειας για την αγορά και πώληση εισροών. Μια διερεύνηση που γίνεται ακόμα πιο επιτακτική μετά τις τελευταίες εξελίξεις στην Ουκρανία.

Οι Δύο Όψεις της Ενεργειακής Κρίσης στην Ελληνική Οικονομία: Μέρος Α

Στη παρούσα Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας ανιχνεύουμε τα δομικά αίτια της τρέχουσας ενεργειακής κρίσης στη ελληνική οικονομία. Για τον σκοπό αυτό χρησιμοποιούμε μια διευρυμένη εκδοχή της μεθόδου υποθετικής απόσπασης, η οποία λαμβάνει υπόψη όχι μόνο τις τεχνικές συνθήκες παραγωγής της ελληνικής οικονομίας αλλά και τις κοινωνικές συνθήκες, ενώ κάνουμε και μια καταγραφή της εξέλιξης του ενεργειακού κόστους. Από την ανάλυσή μας, προκύπτει ότι έχει επέλθει μια απότομη δομική αλλαγή όσον αφορά τον τομέα της ενέργειας. Συγκεκριμένα, η συμμετοχή των εγχώριων εξορύξεων, στον οποίο βασιζόταν παραδοσιακά η ελληνική οικονομία για την παραγωγή φτηνής ενέργειας, έχει μειωθεί αισθητά και σε μεγάλο βαθμό έχει αντικατασταθεί με εισαγωγές φυσικού αερίου. Συνεπώς, από τη μια πλευρά, η δομική μεταβολή του μείγματος εισροών για την παραγωγή ενέργειας της χώρας εις βάρος του κλάδου της εξόρυξης, στον οποίο η ελληνική οικονομία παραδοσιακά βασιζόταν, και υπέρ του εισαγόμενου φυσικού αερίου, και, από την άλλη πλευρά, η εκτίναξη των διεθνών τιμών φυσικού αερίου και πετρελαίου, έχουν δημιουργήσει την εκρηκτική αύξηση του ενεργειακού κόστους στην ελληνική οικονομία.